We’re going to go on a little bit of a cliff trip here, but let’s keep going.
The best moving average for swinging trades is the SMA. That’s because it’s the average of your closing speed minus your opening speed, and in the case of closing, it’s your average speed minus your average speed at the beginning of your swing. In other words, the faster you can close, the less likely you are to be stuck trying to get ahead of people or trying to catch up with them after you get back on your feet.
Let’s have a look at this two examples, one where we’re using Bats/Cubs and one where we’re using A’s/Blue Jays. In the Bats/Cubs example, we’re looking at two different starting pitchers and one of them is the hitter. In the A’s/Blue Jays example, both pitchers are the hitter.
Below are the two versions of this chart of my closing speed/opening speed chart, one with each type of hitter in the lineup. Notice how much better it is for the hitter for the Bats/Cubs example. Not only are we looking at closing speeds, which were the ones I mentioned earlier, but we’re also looking at the first two base paths.
When you’re in the lead (Bats/Cubs), the best closing speed for you to finish your swings is closer to the second base path. In this case, it’s 4.7 seconds, which is the best opening speed (2-2 count) that you can use for your closing speed. Let’s do what David Price did last year, and he basically threw every pitch of his at 2-2 count. In this chart, you’ll see that he threw an average of 6.5 seconds, with about 8 seconds of that thrown on his first 2 pitches. That’s almost an 80% decrease from his first pitch.
You can also get a closer look in the A’s/Blue Jays case. First of all, the A’s, a team with very good pitching, throw a ton of pitches at 2-2 counts, so that’s a big factor in this. For the A’s, David Price was thrown out at 2-2 in a whopping 21% of his pitches, so you could also look at the 1-0 pitches for him and see how that affected him. If you look at the 2-2 counts, Price was thrown out at nearly 6 seconds on average (
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